Succession Map
Backups one snap away from inherited volume. Inheritance = starter fragility (games missed, injury-report weeks, age cliff) + job shakiness (expiring or cheap contract).
How this board is built (and how it backtested)
Validated on every starter/backup chain 2018–2024 (n≈1,000): fragility predicts starter games missed (rank corr 0.18, monotone) and inheritance predicts backup points — top-quartile backups averaged 56 pts vs 39 for the bottom quartile. The strongest single signal is the age cliff: past it, starters decline hard at every position. Draft these players late as insurance, not as starters.
| Backup | Inherit | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | J.J. McCarthy QB MIN· behind Kyler Murray | 86.0 | ▼ |
| 2 | Carson Wentz QB MIN· behind Kyler Murray (3rd string) | 86.0 | ▼ |
| 3 | Jonnu Smith TE GB· behind Tucker Kraft | 71.2 | ▼ |
| 4 | Xavier Worthy WR KC· behind Rashee Rice | 71.2 | ▼ |
| 5 | Josh Whyle TE GB· behind Tucker Kraft (3rd string) | 71.2 | ▼ |
| 6 | Tyquan Thornton WR KC· behind Rashee Rice (3rd string) | 71.2 | ▼ |
| 7 | Brock Wright TE DET· behind Sam LaPorta | 68.0 | ▼ |
| 8 | Tyler Conklin TE DET· behind Sam LaPorta (3rd string) | 68.0 | ▼ |
| 9 | Jordan Mason RB MIN· behind Aaron Jones Sr. | 65.8 | ▼ |
| 10 | Demond Claiborne RB MIN· behind Aaron Jones Sr. (3rd string) | 65.8 | ▼ |
| 11 | Will Kacmarek TE MIA· behind Greg Dulcich | 65.4 | ▼ |
| 12 | Seydou Traore TE MIA· behind Greg Dulcich (3rd string) | 65.4 | ▼ |
| 13 | Fernando Mendoza QB LV· behind Kirk Cousins | 64.2 | ▼ |
| 14 | Aidan O'Connell QB LV· behind Kirk Cousins (3rd string) | 64.2 | ▼ |
| 15 | Dawson Knox TE BUF· behind Dalton Kincaid | 60.9 | ▼ |
| 16 | Jackson Hawes TE BUF· behind Dalton Kincaid (3rd string) | 60.9 | ▼ |
| 17 | Deebo Samuel WR SF· behind Mike Evans | 60.0 | ▼ |
| 18 | De'Zhaun Stribling WR SF· behind Mike Evans (3rd string) | 60.0 | ▼ |
| 19 | Kenny Gainwell RB TB· behind Bucky Irving | 59.2 | ▼ |
| 20 | Sean Tucker RB TB· behind Bucky Irving (3rd string) | 59.2 | ▼ |
| 21 | Cade Klubnik QB NYJ· behind Geno Smith | 58.2 | ▼ |
| 22 | Marcus Mariota QB WAS· behind Jayden Daniels | 52.8 | ▼ |
| 23 | Athan Kaliakmanis QB WAS· behind Jayden Daniels (3rd string) | 52.8 | ▼ |
| 24 | Kyle Monangai RB CHI· behind D'Andre Swift | 50.3 | ▼ |
| 25 | Roschon Johnson RB CHI· behind D'Andre Swift (3rd string) | 50.3 | ▼ |
| 26 | Michael Penix Jr. QB ATL· behind Tua Tagovailoa | 49.5 | ▼ |
| 27 | Cooper Rush QB ATL· behind Tua Tagovailoa (3rd string) | 49.5 | ▼ |
| 28 | Kyle McCord QB MIA· behind Malik Willis | 49.2 | ▼ |
| 29 | Brady Cook QB MIA· behind Malik Willis (3rd string) | 49.2 | ▼ |
| 30 | Mason Rudolph QB PIT· behind Aaron Rodgers | 47.8 | ▼ |
| 31 | Will Howard QB PIT· behind Aaron Rodgers (3rd string) | 47.8 | ▼ |
| 32 | Johnny Mundt TE PHI· behind Dallas Goedert | 47.7 | ▼ |
| 33 | Stefon Diggs WR WAS· behind Terry McLaurin | 47.7 | ▼ |
| 34 | Eli Stowers TE PHI· behind Dallas Goedert (3rd string) | 47.7 | ▼ |
| 35 | Antonio Williams WR WAS· behind Terry McLaurin (3rd string) | 47.7 | ▼ |
| 36 | Mac Jones QB SF· behind Brock Purdy | 46.4 | ▼ |
| 37 | Kurtis Rourke QB SF· behind Brock Purdy (3rd string) | 46.4 | ▼ |
| 38 | Davante Adams WR LA· behind Puka Nacua | 45.8 | ▼ |
| 39 | Jordan Whittington WR LA· behind Puka Nacua (3rd string) | 45.8 | ▼ |
| 40 | Tank Bigsby RB PHI· behind Saquon Barkley | 45.2 | ▼ |
| 41 | Will Shipley RB PHI· behind Saquon Barkley (3rd string) | 45.2 | ▼ |
| 42 | Najee Harris RB NYG· behind Cam Skattebo | 44.6 | ▼ |
| 43 | Kaelon Black RB SF· behind Christian McCaffrey | 44.6 | ▼ |
| 44 | Tyrone Tracy Jr. RB NYG· behind Cam Skattebo (3rd string) | 44.6 | ▼ |
| 45 | Jordan James RB SF· behind Christian McCaffrey (3rd string) | 44.6 | ▼ |
| 46 | Kenyon Sadiq TE NYJ· behind Mason Taylor | 44.5 | ▼ |
| 47 | Jeremy Ruckert TE NYJ· behind Mason Taylor (3rd string) | 44.5 | ▼ |
| 48 | Adam Trautman TE DEN· behind Evan Engram | 44.4 | ▼ |
| 49 | Nate Adkins TE DEN· behind Evan Engram (3rd string) | 44.4 | ▼ |
| 50 | Tyler Higbee TE LA· behind Colby Parkinson | 44.0 | ▼ |