Year-Two Breakout Board

Second-year players most likely to jump. Score = rookie-season usage percentile (70%) + draft pedigree (30%), multiplied by camp depth-chart tier.

How this board is built (and how it backtested)

Backtested on the 2018–2024 rookie classes with leak-free week-1 roster snapshots: held-out rank correlation 0.74 vs year-two fantasy points, and ~70% of top-5 picks hit — vs ~60% for the best naïve baseline. Vacated usage and efficiency looked tempting but failed the backtest; they appear in the why-line as context only. Depth-chart multiplier (1.25× first-string / 0.85× buried) validated separately: opening-day first-stringers beat the base score 1.38×.

	Player	Usage pctl	Pedigree	Depth ×	Score
1	Ashton Jeanty RB LV	100	1.00	1.25	125.0	▼
2	Omarion Hampton RB LAC	96	1.00	1.25	121.1	▼
3	Emeka Egbuka WR TB	94	1.00	1.25	120.0	▼
4	Tetairoa McMillan WR CAR	94	1.00	1.25	119.4	▼
5	Tyler Warren TE IND	93	1.00	1.25	118.8	▼
6	Quinshon Judkins RB CLE	99	0.85	1.25	118.8	▼
7	Colston Loveland TE CHI	89	1.00	1.25	115.5	▼
8	Matthew Golden WR GB	83	1.00	1.25	110.4	▼
9	Harold Fannin Jr. TE CLE	92	0.70	1.25	107.0	▼
10	Luther Burden III WR CHI	85	0.85	1.25	106.5	▼
11	Mason Taylor TE NYJ	85	0.85	1.25	105.9	▼
12	Tre Harris WR LAC	81	0.85	1.25	102.5	▼
13	Cam Skattebo RB NYG	95	0.50	1.25	101.8	▼
14	Bhayshul Tuten RB JAX	91	0.50	1.25	98.4	▼
15	Jack Bech WR LV	76	0.85	1.25	98.1	▼
16	Jacory Croskey-Merritt RB WAS	96	0.35	1.25	97.3	▼
17	TreVeyon Henderson RB NE	98	0.85	1.00	94.2	▼
18	RJ Harvey RB DEN	97	0.85	1.00	93.7	▼
19	Gunnar Helm TE TEN	84	0.50	1.25	92.2	▼
20	Isaac TeSlaa WR DET	74	0.70	1.25	91.3	▼
21	Woody Marks RB HOU	99	0.50	1.00	84.1	▼
22	Dylan Sampson RB CLE	92	0.50	1.00	79.2	▼
23	Kyle Monangai RB CHI	97	0.35	1.00	78.3	▼
24	Elic Ayomanor WR TEN	90	0.50	1.00	78.3	▼
25	Pat Bryant WR DEN	82	0.70	1.00	78.2	▼
26	Chimere Dike WR TEN	90	0.50	1.00	77.8	▼
27	Jaylin Noel WR HOU	80	0.70	1.00	77.1	▼
28	Jayden Higgins WR HOU	86	0.85	0.85	72.8	▼
29	Devin Neal RB NO	87	0.35	1.00	71.5	▼
30	Kyle Williams WR NE	71	0.70	1.00	70.6	▼
31	Tez Johnson WR TB	83	0.35	1.00	68.4	▼
32	Jaydon Blue RB PHI	79	0.35	1.00	66.1	▼
33	Elijah Arroyo TE SEA	73	0.85	0.85	65.2	▼
34	Terrance Ferguson TE LA	73	0.85	0.85	65.2	▼
35	Isaiah Bond WR CLE	82	0.25	1.00	64.7	▼
36	Kaleb Johnson RB GB	77	0.70	0.85	63.4	▼
37	Mitchell Evans TE CAR	73	0.35	1.00	61.7	▼
38	Ollie Gordon II RB MIA	88	0.35	0.85	61.4	▼
39	Brashard Smith RB KC	88	0.35	0.85	61.4	▼
40	Oronde Gadsden II TE LAC	87	0.35	0.85	60.4	▼
41	Konata Mumpfield WR LA	71	0.35	1.00	60.1	▼
42	Jimmy Horn Jr. WR CAR	71	0.35	1.00	60.1	▼
43	Tai Felton WR MIN	55	0.70	1.00	59.8	▼
44	Jaylin Lane WR WAS	78	0.50	0.85	59.3	▼
45	Tory Horton WR SEA	69	0.35	1.00	59.0	▼
46	Savion Williams WR GB	69	0.70	0.85	58.7	▼
47	Dont'e Thornton Jr. WR LV	77	0.50	0.85	58.3	▼
48	LeQuint Allen Jr. RB JAX	79	0.35	0.85	55.8	▼
49	KeAndre Lambert-Smith WR LAC	65	0.35	1.00	55.8	▼
50	Trevor Etienne RB CAR	71	0.50	0.85	54.9	▼