Year-Two Breakout Board

Second-year players most likely to jump. Score = rookie-season usage percentile (70%) + draft pedigree (30%), multiplied by camp depth-chart tier.

How this board is built (and how it backtested)

Backtested on the 2018–2024 rookie classes with leak-free week-1 roster snapshots: held-out rank correlation 0.74 vs year-two fantasy points, and ~70% of top-5 picks hit — vs ~60% for the best naïve baseline. Vacated usage and efficiency looked tempting but failed the backtest; they appear in the why-line as context only. Depth-chart multiplier (1.25× first-string / 0.85× buried) validated separately: opening-day first-stringers beat the base score 1.38×.

	Player	Usage pctl	Pedigree	Depth ×	Score
1	Ashton Jeanty RB LV	100	1.00	1.25	125.0	▼
2	Omarion Hampton RB LAC	95	1.00	1.25	121.0	▼
3	Emeka Egbuka WR TB	94	1.00	1.25	119.8	▼
4	Tetairoa McMillan WR CAR	93	1.00	1.25	119.2	▼
5	Quinshon Judkins RB CLE	99	0.85	1.25	118.8	▼
6	Tyler Warren TE IND	93	1.00	1.25	118.7	▼
7	Colston Loveland TE CHI	89	1.00	1.25	115.2	▼
8	Matthew Golden WR GB	83	1.00	1.25	110.0	▼
9	Harold Fannin Jr. TE CLE	92	0.70	1.25	106.8	▼
10	Jayden Higgins WR HOU	86	0.85	1.25	106.7	▼
11	Luther Burden III WR CHI	85	0.85	1.25	106.1	▼
12	Tre Harris WR LAC	80	0.85	1.25	102.1	▼
13	Cam Skattebo RB NYG	95	0.50	1.25	101.6	▼
14	Bhayshul Tuten RB JAX	91	0.50	1.25	98.2	▼
15	Jack Bech WR LV	75	0.85	1.25	97.5	▼
16	Jacory Croskey-Merritt RB WAS	96	0.35	1.25	97.2	▼
17	Jaylin Noel WR HOU	80	0.70	1.25	95.9	▼
18	TreVeyon Henderson RB NE	98	0.85	1.00	94.1	▼
19	RJ Harvey RB DEN	97	0.85	1.00	93.7	▼
20	Gunnar Helm TE TEN	84	0.50	1.25	91.9	▼
21	Isaac TeSlaa WR DET	74	0.70	1.25	90.7	▼
22	Oronde Gadsden II TE LAC	86	0.35	1.25	88.5	▼
23	Mason Taylor TE NYJ	84	0.85	1.00	84.4	▼
24	Woody Marks RB HOU	99	0.50	1.00	84.1	▼
25	Dylan Sampson RB CLE	91	0.50	1.00	79.0	▼
26	Kyle Monangai RB CHI	97	0.35	1.00	78.2	▼
27	Elic Ayomanor WR TEN	90	0.50	1.00	78.1	▼
28	Pat Bryant WR DEN	81	0.70	1.00	77.9	▼
29	Chimere Dike WR TEN	89	0.50	1.00	77.6	▼
30	Elijah Arroyo TE SEA	72	0.85	1.00	76.2	▼
31	Savion Williams WR GB	68	0.70	1.00	68.4	▼
32	Dont'e Thornton Jr. WR LV	76	0.50	1.00	68.2	▼
33	Tez Johnson WR TB	82	0.35	1.00	68.1	▼
34	Jaydon Blue RB DAL	79	0.35	1.00	65.8	▼
35	Terrance Ferguson TE LA	72	0.85	0.85	64.7	▼
36	Isaiah Bond WR CLE	81	0.25	1.00	64.4	▼
37	Kaleb Johnson RB PIT	76	0.70	0.85	63.1	▼
38	DJ Giddens RB IND	74	0.35	1.00	62.5	▼
39	Ollie Gordon II RB MIA	88	0.35	0.85	61.2	▼
40	Brashard Smith RB KC	88	0.35	0.85	61.2	▼
41	Devin Neal RB NO	87	0.35	0.85	60.6	▼
42	Konata Mumpfield WR LA	70	0.35	1.00	59.5	▼
43	Kyle Williams WR NE	70	0.70	0.85	59.5	▼
44	Jimmy Horn Jr. WR CAR	70	0.35	1.00	59.5	▼
45	Tai Felton WR MIN	54	0.70	1.00	59.0	▼
46	Jaylin Lane WR WAS	78	0.50	0.85	58.9	▼
47	Tory Horton WR SEA	68	0.35	1.00	58.4	▼
48	LeQuint Allen Jr. RB JAX	78	0.35	0.85	55.5	▼
49	KeAndre Lambert-Smith WR LAC	64	0.35	1.00	55.2	▼
50	Trevor Etienne RB CAR	70	0.50	0.85	54.4	▼